09
Jan
08

Polls apart

Picking up from Karnie’s post i am struck by how badly everyone seemed to have got it wrong in New Hampshire. And before i carry on, the BBC did too- our opening line on our flagship bulletin last night was something like “Barrack Obama is just hours away from a convincing win over Hillary Clinton” and he wasn’t.
This didn’t stop some of our breakfast presenters making mild fun of some of the national papers here. Some of the early editions did have big pictures of Mr Obama anticipating the win which didn’t come and it’s easy to take the mick when you’ve just heard a bulletin saying that Clinton won and then to start reviewing the papers. It’s not big and it’s not clever particularly when a) we were wrong as well and b) newspapers are 24 hour web operations and they would have announced the results online at the same time as we did.

So, a few articles having a go at the pollsters and pundits    for sure, and a few blog conversations about whether pollsters have the affect of galvanising support for a candidate who’s been written off and, conversely , keeping people at home if their candidate has been described as a shoo-in.

But there’s a bit more going on here as well. Justin Webb’s excellent blog  links to this piece- called “journo love for Obama “ and you do wonder if -in certain quarters – people were writing or broadcasting the story they wanted to hear. In some bulletins i’ve heard there was no mention of the Republican race at all (McCain won incidentally).

So, do you have faith in the pollsters and the pundits or is the electorate- wherever people are – a bit smarter than that ?

And do you think parts of the media (and that applies to us) are a bit loved up by the Obama bandwagon ? ?  


5 Responses to “Polls apart”


  1. 1 Brett
    January 9, 2008 at 12:30

    After CNN mistakenly called him Osama on air, I don’t think theres anything wrong with a little love for Obama from the media. Hillary certainly got her share of love and attention from the media before the race started heating up.

    Tough break on jumping the gun though, but hey, at least it wasn’t as bad as Bush/Gore election and the media!

    Brett ~ Richmond, Va

  2. 2 George
    January 9, 2008 at 17:21

    It has nothing to do with race or gender for the voters.

    People want hope, and Obama is speaking hope.

    The lust for power of some is clear.

    The media got it right.

    Anything goes to grab power is what went on in NH, and it has nothing to do with what the voters voted.

  3. 3 Cotilia
    January 9, 2008 at 18:34

    I am an African American woman who is amazed by how people think I am going to vote just because I am black and a woman. I am undecided right now on who to vote for. I will be evaluating who represents my best interests. If I had to vote today, I would vote for Barack Obama. Thus far, Hillary has come across as condescending to black voters to me. I don’t believe she is genuine. However, I am still willing to listen to what she has to say.

    By the way, I voted for Bush in 2004. Don’t be so quick to assume blacks ALWAYS vote democratic.

  4. 4 Greg (Portland, OR)
    January 9, 2008 at 23:01

    If the BBC or any other media corporation didn’t know the facts of who won in New Hampshire, then they shouldn’t have tried to guess with polling. Doing so was irresponsible. Political polling especially attempts to divine the future and it does occasionally get it wrong. That’s what the little footnotes at the bottom of most polls, citing margin of error, mean.

  5. 5 d matthews
    January 10, 2008 at 17:50

    http://www.gopetition.com/online/16251.html on the problem needs repair.

    and as i posted elsewhere. be careful of half of what you read..

    here are some results. the other half..

    Hillary Clinton has won 9 New Hampshire delegates (3 statewide, 6 district-level)
    Barack Obama has won 9 New Hampshire delegates (3 statewide, 6 district-level)
    John Edwards has won 4 New Hampshire delegates (2 statewide, 2 district-level)
    22 Democratic delegates were at stake in the New Hampshire primary
    There are also 8 Democratic “superdelegates” in New Hampshire. Of those, 2 support Clinton and 3 support Obama, according to a CNN survey.

    and ive heard this election was brought to complements of diebold. bush ala’ fla and ohio.. and those who would lose to obama in nov.. any confirmation?
    i’m female and i know what the DLC is so i couldn’t vote hillary. i choose obama so we dont end up with gop- lite and all the “pork” she’ll owe..


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